There are an estimated 46 new electric vehicles slated for production in the next three model years, according to Cox Automotive. While that number will be celebrated in some corners, it is generating concern among auto lenders that worry about residual values and incurring big losses similar to what happened during the financial crisis a dozen years ago.
The consternation comes from the fact EVs are commonly leased and captive finance companies dominate this space, meaning they will be taking a risk on EV resale values. If lenders get residual values wrong and off-lease vehicles are worth significantly less than predicted, that could generate significant losses when lenders resell them at auction.
This resale-value catastrophe last occurred in 2008 when fuel prices spiked and auction values fell for full-size trucks coming back from leases. Several lenders back then had to take special charges because of unexpected depreciation on off-lease…