At least for now, General Motors has reclaimed the U.S. sales crown it held for nine decades before losing it to Toyota Motor North America last year. The fluid, unpredictable nature of the global microchip shortage and other supply chain disruptions continue to put all automakers on edge.

“It feels a little bit more like treading water,” Jeff Schuster, president of global forecasting at LMC Automotive, told Automotive News. Production is “flowing in and flowing out as soon as it comes in, so we’re not seeing any accumulation of inventory at this point.”

GM outsold Toyota by more than 47,000 vehicles in the second quarter, according to the Automotive News Research & Data Center. GM delivered 578,507 vehicles, while Toyota sold 531,105.

“Whatever we are wholesaling, [dealers] are retailing,” said Jack Hollis, the new executive vice president of sales for Toyota Motor North America. “Right now, we are not seeing any softening.”

Overall, U.S. auto sales fell 25 percent in the second quarter for the 10 automakers that reported as of press time Friday, July 1. Ford Motor Co., Volvo, Mercedes-Benz and Jaguar Land Rover had not yet reported second-quarter sales and were expected to report this week.

The seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of sales for June was forecast to come in at 13 million to 13.8 million, based on analysts’ estimates. That would be a rebound from May’s 12.81 million rate, according to Motor Intelligence, but down sharply from June 2021’s 15.43 million pace.

Before last week’s sales reports, Cox Automotive lowered its full-year sales forecast to 14.4 million. J.D. Power and LMC expect full-year sales to range between 14.7 million and 15.3 million.

Automakers’ parts supplies have ebbed and flowed at different times during the chip crisis, said Stephanie Brinley, principal automotive analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “The situation is so fluid right now that on a month, you can say one OEM had more chips than the other. But that’s too small of a snapshot to understand how well automakers are getting through the process,” she said.

Dealer inventory stands at 35 days on average, according to Cox, but some brands are faring better than others.

For example, all four of GM’s brands have a higher-than-average days’ supply, helping the automaker win the sales race last quarter. Toyota’s supply is one of the lowest, around 20 days.

“They’re losing some ground this quarter, and it seems likely that their tight supply situation is having a much bigger impact than before,” Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, told reporters last week.

Coinciding with its return to the top of the U.S. market, GM plans to hold 95,000 vehicles awaiting parts. The automaker won’t allow dealers to sell those vehicles — or any other vehicle — before arriving at the store, a change in policy that went into effect July 1 after customers who bought vehicles before taking delivery were required to start their payments potentially months before seeing the vehicle.

Consumers are facing inflationary pressure and near-record fuel prices. But if the U.S. economy enters a recession, the auto industry is unlikely to take a significant hit, analysts say.

“Sales are already at recessionary levels, so our vehicle market would be falling off of a curve rather than falling off of a cliff like in a normal recession,” Chesbrough said.

Demand remains high as many consumers wait months for their vehicles. About 40 percent of inventory is turning within five days of arriving at dealerships, according to J.D. Power.

Production could improve between September and November, said Tyson Jominy, J.D. Power’s vice president of data and analytics. Still, “we won’t see an improvement in inventory even as we expect an improvement in production [because of] pent-up demand, consumers waiting for their vehicle,” Jominy said. “Vehicles will continue to turn it at these record paces that we’ve been seeing.”

Larry P. Vellequette contributed to this report.