Global trade is projected to reach an all-time high of $33 trillion in 2024, a $1 trillion increase from 2023. This 3.3% annual growth is driven by a 7% rise in trade services, which contributed $500 billion to the expansion. According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) Global Trade Update, goods trade saw a modest 2% increase, remaining below its 2022 peak.
In the third quarter, developed economies drove growth thanks to stable demand and favorable conditions. In contrast, developing economies, usually strong in trade, struggled with a 1% drop in imports and South-South trade. While energy and metals saw sharp declines, high-growth sectors like Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and apparel surged by 13% and 14%, showing potential for growth in higher-value industries.
“Looking ahead to 2025, UNCTAD cautioned about potential disruptions from broader U.S. tariffs under a new administration, which could strain global value chains. “Even the mere threat of tariffs creates unpredictability, weakening trade, investment, and economic growth,” the report stated. Countries with significant trade surpluses with the U.S., such as China, the EU, and India, may be particularly vulnerable to policy shifts.
“Trade remains a cornerstone of sustainable development,” said UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan. “To seize the opportunities in 2025, developing economies need coordinated support to navigate uncertainty, reduce dependencies, and strengthen their links to global markets.”
The report also touched on challenges in the maritime sector. Modest growth of 2% is projected for 2024 despite major geopolitical issues in critical chokepoints like the Suez and Panama Canal. Stable global growth forecasts and easing inflation offer a pathway for resilience in the face of uncertainties.