Continued production cuts related to the ongoing semiconductor shortage are expected to again depress U.S. auto sales.

Deliveries of new vehicles in February are down an estimated 10 to 11 percent from a year earlier, according to forecasts from Cox Automotive, TrueCar, J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. Retail sales are projected to drop 5.7 percent from February 2021 to 922,100, J.D. Power and LMC said.

Automakers will begin reporting their February results Tuesday. Fewer than a dozen brands still report sales on a monthly basis, including Toyota, Hyundai, Honda and Ford.

February is traditionally one of the year’s slower sales months even when inventory is plentiful. But a lack of chips has left little to choose from on dealership lots, and industry experts don’t anticipate that will change anytime soon.

“With retail inventory on pace to finish a fourth consecutive month below 900,000 units and ninth consecutive month below one million units, the new-vehicle supply situation is not displaying signs of near-term improvement,” Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, said in a statement. “Therefore, sales in February are being determined by the number of vehicles delivered to dealerships rather than reflecting actual consumer demand.”

The seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of sales for February is forecast to come in at 14.1 million to 14.4 million, TrueCar, Cox, J.D. Power and LMC said, down from 15.2 million in January.

Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said the industry could be headed toward a significant SAAR drop-off in the coming months with no “tangible market changes” expected.

“In the winter, when low sales volumes are expected, seasonal adjustments can result in a relatively strong SAAR, as we have in January and February,” he said. “But come spring, when sales are expected to be much higher, the SAAR will look particularly weak. Without a big jump in inventory, March’s SAAR is going to show a significant decline.”

The industry’s average transaction price is expected to reach a February record of $44,460, J.D. Power and LMC said. That would mark an 18.5 percent increase from a year earlier.

“Despite lower volumes, higher prices mean that retail consumers are on track to spend a healthy $41.0 billion on new vehicles this month, the highest on record for the month of February and 12.4 percent above February 2021,” King said.

With demand high and inventory scarce, automakers continue to cut back on incentives.

For February, incentive spending per vehicle is expected to be $1,246, down $2,143 from a year earlier, J.D. Power and LMC said. As a percentage of the average vehicle sticker price, February incentives are expected to reach a record low 2.8 percent, J.D. Power said. That would be down 5 percentage points from February 2021 and would be the second consecutive month below 3 percent.