The container shipping industry is navigating a volatile landscape, with major concerns over when the Suez Canal will fully reopen and how new U.S. tariffs will impact global trade. A recent survey from Drewry shows most industry insiders expect Suez transits to resume by the end of 2025, while bracing for additional trade restrictions under Donald Trump’s administration.
Suez Canal Disruptions Continue
More than half (54%) of respondents in the Drewry survey believe full-scale Suez Canal transits will resume before the end of 2025, while 29% think it could take until 2026. The blockade, caused by ongoing conflict in the Middle East, has forced container ships to reroute around Africa, cutting global shipping capacity by about 9%. Osama Rabie, chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, is optimistic about a recovery by mid-year—if the Gaza ceasefire holds.
However, that outlook is becoming more uncertain. After the survey closed, Trump urged Israel to abandon the ceasefire deal if hostages weren’t returned by February 15, raising concerns about further instability in the region.
Tariffs on the Rise
The Drewry survey also highlights concerns over U.S. trade policy, with most respondents expecting higher tariffs under Trump. The most common prediction (32%) suggests the U.S. effective tariff rate will rise to between 5% and 10% by year-end, up from 2.4% in September 2024. More dramatically, 13% expect tariffs to surpass 20%, a level not seen since the Great Depression.
China is seen as the most likely target, with 85% of respondents predicting additional tariffs. Mexico (76%), Canada (73%), and the European Union (60%) are also expected to face new trade restrictions. Even countries that could benefit from diverted trade, like India (16%) and Vietnam (14%), may not be exempt.
Container Shipping Stocks Feel the Pressure
Shipping stocks have been on a wild ride. Drewry’s Container Equity Index shows that a $1,000 investment in early 2019 would have grown to $3,150 by February 2025, outperforming the S&P 500’s return of $2,346. However, the index has dropped 50% from its peak, showing how vulnerable the industry is to global events.
“There is too much noise surrounding events that impact container shipping to confidently predict its course in the short-term,” Drewry noted in its analysis.
Looking Ahead
Maersk, the world’s second-largest ocean carrier, expects global container volume to grow by about 4% in 2025, but its forecast depends heavily on the Suez reopening and the impact of new tariffs. The company’s projected operating profit for 2025 ranges widely from $0 to $3 billion, showing just how much uncertainty remains.
With major geopolitical shifts on the horizon, the container shipping industry is preparing for another turbulent year.
alt headline: Shipping Industry Faces Uncertain 2025 as Suez Crisis and Tariffs Loom