Leasing took a dive in 2020 as customers opted to extend contracts or return vehicles without leasing a new model. Tight new-vehicle inventories could be enough to delay a strong leasing rebound, as savvy customers opt to purchase their off-lease vehicle rather than wait out production delays, economists at Cox Automotive and Edmunds said.
Cox estimates 4 million leases will mature in 2021. The shift in retention values means the value of those vehicles will be much higher than initially forecast, providing returning customers with an incentive to buy out their lease, says Charlie Chesbrough, Cox Automotive senior economist.
"It's too soon to declare a permanent shift in the retention values of vehicles, but more value does appear to be the normal for now," Chesbrough said this week during a virtual sales presentation. "Lease maturities are going to be a big opportunity in the market this year for both consumers, dealers and the whole industry…