Boeing’s latest World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) anticipates major growth in air cargo traffic, projecting an annual increase of 4% through 2043. With air cargo demand now surpassing pre-pandemic levels, Boeing expects the global freighter fleet to expand from 2,340 airplanes in 2023 to 3,900 by 2043. This growth is driven largely by rising e-commerce, shifting supply chains, and strong demand from emerging markets, particularly in Asia.
“As the quickest and most reliable way to move goods, air cargo’s sustained growth has returned the industry to its long-term trend,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of Commercial Marketing. He noted that e-commerce expansion and economic growth in emerging markets will be key drivers of air freight demand over the next two decades.
Asia is set to lead this expansion, with East and South Asian markets experiencing the fastest growth rates due to economic development and increased consumer demand. The Asia-Pacific fleet is projected to nearly triple, with regional carriers needing around 980 new freighters, followed by North America’s 955. Together, these regions will account for over two-thirds of all new deliveries.
India’s domestic market, in particular, is expected to grow significantly, nearly quadrupling as express and e-commerce networks expand. Express carriers, which handle urgent e-commerce deliveries, are forecasted to increase their air cargo market share from 18% today to 25% by 2043, growing faster than the industry average.
Boeing anticipates delivering 2,845 freighters to meet this demand over the next 20 years. These will include 1,005 newly built planes and 1,840 converted from passenger aircraft. Nearly half of these deliveries will replace older, less fuel-efficient models, but many aging jets remain in service to meet current market needs.