Much is riding on the 2021 Nissan Rogue, expected to arrive in U.S. stores this fall. But its journey — through the terrain of a global pandemic — could be bumpy.
The redesigned Rogue compact crossover is scheduled to debut on June 15 as the linchpin of Nissan’s plan to turn around its struggling U.S. business.
Nissan Division sales dove 30 percent in the first quarter, compared with a 12 percent slide for the industry. Chronic product discounting and a reliance on residual value-hurting fleet sales have dinged the brand’s reputation, leaving dealers struggling to find customers.
The third-generation Rogue — the first of five new or redesigned Nissan models that will enter production in the next year — is being looked to as a way for the automaker to change the storyline.
But no one expected the plot twist of the COVID-19 pandemic upsetting business plans and consumer attitudes just as the Rogue arrives.
The prospect of a prolonged recession now additionally threatens Nissan’s product offensive. J.D. Power’s outlook for 2020 U.S. retail sales is 11.3 million to 12.5 million — a plunge of 1 million to 2 million sales from its pre-virus forecast of 13.4 million.
Some automakers are responding by delaying launches for key models until markets and consumer sentiment recover. General Motors has shifted three freshened 2021 Chevrolet models — the Equinox, Traverse and Bolt EV — to the 2022 model year.
Nissan does not have the luxury of time with the Rogue. The product was last redesigned in 2013 and last year generated nearly 30 percent of the brand’s total sales.
The Rogue is Nissan’s equivalent of the Ford F-150, said Jeff Schuster, president of global forecasting at LMC Automotive.
“It’s their volume product, and it’s in the sweet-spot segment,” Schuster said.
The Rogue accounted for 12.4 percent share of the entire compact crossover market last year. That segment was the second-largest behind full-size pickups in 2019.
Getting the product to market on schedule is a top priority, said Chris Reed, Nissan North America senior vice president of R&D.
“Rogue is clearly one of the most important launches in the history of Nissan,” Reed said. “We went to great lengths to keep the team motivated in spite of the interruptions caused by COVID-19.”
Nissan dealer Justin Crain is cautiously optimistic the new Rogue will find sales success.
“We’re still rediscovering this new market, post-COVID,” said Crain, managing partner at Burleson Nissan near Fort Worth, Texas. “This will be the first big product launch by the three major Japanese automakers after COVID. So we’ll see what that’s like.”
The Rogue was the sixth-best-selling vehicle in the country at the end of 2019, according to the Automotive News Data Center. It was the third-best-selling compact crossover last year behind the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V. Rogue sales peaked in 2018 at 412,110.
“The world’s all about SUVs, so we’ve got to get Rogue right,” Crain said.
The Rogue’s market launch will require precision. U.S. employment has tumbled by more than 20 million jobs after much of the economy went into a shutdown for months. With job security under threat, consumer appetite for big-ticket purchases has waned.
Nissan is likely to have to recalibrate its volume expectations for the new Rogue, Schuster said.
“That top-line volume hit is going to put pressure on pricing,” Schuster said. “In order to get the volume Nissan wants to run the plant efficiently, it may need to be more aggressive on pricing than initially planned.”
Nissan faces a “transaction-price challenge in a frugal market,” said Tyler Slade, operating partner at Tim Dahle Nissan Southtowne in suburban Salt Lake City.
“Even if the MSRP doesn’t change, the incentives around it certainly will,” Slade said. “That’s going to make it much more difficult for consumers to afford, when everybody is worried about dollars and cents.”
Dealers are hopeful the new Rogue will command strong residual values, as the 2020 Sentra did in the months after its buoyant January launch.
“If that were to happen, we can lease the Rogue competitively and profitably,” Slade said.
Nissan will require a targeted marketing plan to get the Rogue noticed in a segment full of formidable competitors, said Stephanie Brinley, principal analyst with IHS Markit. “You’ve got to get in front of the people considering vehicles of this type,” Brinley said. “There’s too many options out there, and there’s too few” customers.
The next-generation Rogue is built on a new platform jointly developed with Renault and Mitsubishi. Styling is inspired by the Xmotion concept, shown at the 2018 Detroit auto show.
Details of the new generation have not been released yet. As previously reported, the 2021 Rogue will carry over the 2.5-liter four-cylinder engine but gain direct-injection technology.
“We are offering a powertrain that hits the heart of the lower midsize crossover segment,” Nissan’s Reed said, without revealing specs. “The combination of performance, efficiency, refinement and value from this powertrain will appeal to the widest group of buyers.”
Nissan discontinued the Rogue Hybrid for the 2020 model year.
The lack of a hybrid powertrain option will be “a serious challenge” for the Rogue, said Sam Abuelsamid, analyst at Guidehouse Insights.
Three of the model’s biggest competitors — the Ford Escape, Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V — all are available with hybrid powertrains.
“Last year, nearly a quarter of all RAV4 sales in the U.S. were hybrid electric models,” Abuelsamid said, “making it Toyota’s best-selling hybrid by a significant margin.”