Supply chain leaders can’t afford to sit back and wait when it comes to tariff changes. According to Gartner, new tariffs could shake up global trade for years, not months, and businesses that adapt will have a better shot at coming out ahead.

“Enterprises should recognize tariff volatility as a multiyear, dynamic event,” said Suzie Petrusic, Senior Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice. “Chief supply chain officers (CSCOs) who recognize this reality should continually evaluate opportunities to invest in strengthening their operations and attract outside investments from geopolitical actors and ecosystem partners.”

The key, according to Gartner, is planning ahead. CSCOs must consider different scenarios, including policy shifts, countermeasures, and potential de-escalations. Waiting too long—or reacting too quickly—could put companies in a difficult position.

“CSCOs who anticipate that current tariff volatility will persist for years, rather than months, should also recognize that their business operations will not emerge successful by remaining static or purely on the defensive,” said Brian Whitlock, Senior Research Director at Gartner.

To help businesses navigate the uncertainty, Gartner outlined five strategic approaches:

  • Retire: If a product becomes too costly due to tariffs, companies may need to decide whether to absorb the hit, pass costs to customers, or phase out the product altogether.
  • Renovate: Some products may need adjustments to remain viable in a changing market. Companies should reassess whether their pricing and production models still make sense.
  • Rebalance: Companies must factor in potential countermeasures, policy shifts, and competitor responses rather than assuming early tariff impacts will remain the same.
  • Reinvent: Some businesses may find opportunities to invest in new markets or repurpose existing facilities to adapt to geopolitical shifts.
  • Reinvigorate: Companies that benefit from new tariffs can strengthen their advantage by expanding production or lowering prices to capture market share.

“The long-term winners will reinvent or reinvigorate their business strategies,” said Whitlock. “In almost all cases, this will require material business investment and should be a focal point of current scenario planning.”

Gartner’s message is clear: businesses that stay flexible, invest in new opportunities and anticipate future changes will be better positioned for success in an unpredictable trade environment.