Sales of electrified passenger vehicles including all-electric cars and light trucks, and plug-in hybrids will range from 5.5 million to 6 million vehicles in 2022, the China Automobile Dealers Association said this week.
The forecast is significantly higher than the dealer group’s previous outlook of 4.8 million.
It raised the forecast in view of the Chinese government’s less-than-expected cut in subsidies for electrified vehicles this year, CADA said.
China’s Ministry of Finance, in a note posted on its website in late December, said subsidies for electrified vehicles will be cut 30 percent on average in 2022 and the subsidy program will be terminated at the end of the year.
After the reduction in subsidies, electric passenger vehicles qualify for 9,100 yuan ($1,427) if they have a range of 300 kilometers to 400 km on one charge, or 12,600 yuan if the range tops 400 km.
Subsidies for plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles have been revised down to 4,800 yuan if they have a range of more than 50 km on batteries only and sell below 300,000 yuan prior to subsidies.
More importantly, the government didn’t set a quota on the number of electrified vehicles eligible for subsidies in 2022 as had been expected, CADA noted.
In November, electrified passenger vehicle sales in China surged 132 percent to approach 430,000, with year-to-date volume soaring 190 percent to exceed 2.8 million, according to CADA.
The dealer group hasn’t released December sales figures.